If you’ve been wondering why November has felt more like a late taste of summer, you’re not imagining it. Oklahoma has been seesawing between chilly mornings and surprisingly warm afternoons, and many people are asking the same things: Is this unusual and is it breaking records?
From the first of the month through Nov. 16, Tulsa has logged 12 days above normal and only four days below normal.
“We’ve only been below normal on four days so far this month,” Nicole McGavock, a meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Tulsa, said. “So the warmth has definitely been the dominant story.”
And those warm days have packed a punch. On Nov. 15, Tulsa hit 87 degrees, setting a new daily record. The previous record was 82 degrees from 1950.
Still, the month hasn’t been warm from start to finish. On Nov. 9 and 10, the average temperatures were 39 degrees and 35 degrees — 14 and 17 degrees below normal, respectively.
But typical for fall in Oklahoma, those chilly starts didn’t last long. Just days later, Nov. 14-16 ran as much as 20 degrees above normal. McGavock says that kind of volatility isn’t surprising.
“Big swings in temperatures are common during the transition seasons of fall and spring,” McGavock said. “So this is not unusual.”
But here’s the key: Even with all this warmth, we’re not breaking any monthly records. Looking at Nov. 1-16, McGavock says this year ranks as the 21st warmest start on record.
Even “last year was slightly warmer,” McGavock added.
She also noted that 2024 ranked 16th warmest during the same period. The warmest early November ever recorded still belongs to 1931.
And as for the rest of the month? McGavock doesn’t expect a record finish.
“With nearly half the month still ahead, I do not expect this November to exceed the warmest November on record,” McGavock said. “However, the odds favor the month ending up above normal overall.”
So what’s driving the warmth? The Climate Prediction Center points to a combination of La Niña, the Madden-Julian Oscillation and even a potential rare November sudden stratospheric warming event that helped fuel the mild pattern.
But that won’t last forever. A significant pattern shift is expected later this month, likely bringing near-normal temperatures around Thanksgiving and a slight lean toward colder-than-normal conditions heading into early December.
So yes, this warmth is notable, and even record-setting on individual days, but the month as a whole isn’t rewriting the history books. And winter may be closer than it feels.
Kirsten Lang is a Tulsa-based meteorologist and contributor to the Tulsa Flyer.
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